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Article Dans Une Revue Journal of the American Medical Directors Association Année : 2016

A New Prognosis Score to Predict Mortality After Acute Pneumonia in Very Elderly Patients

Lionel Piroth
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Pascal Chavanet
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Objectives: Acute pneumonia (AP) induces an excess of mortality among the elderly. We evaluated the value of a new predictive biomarker index compared to usual prognosis scores for predicting in-hospital and 1-year mortalities in elderly inpatients with AP. Design: Retrospective study in 6 clinical departments of a university hospital. Setting: Burgundy university hospital (France). Participants: All patients aged 75 and over with AP and hospitalized between January 1 and June 30, 2013, in the departments of medicine (5) and intensive care (1) of our university hospital. Measurements: A new index, which we named UBMo, was created by multiplying the uremia (U in the formula) by the N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) plasmatic rate (B), divided by the monocyte count (Mo). Results: Among the 217 patients included, there were 138 community-acquired pneumonia, 56 nursing home-acquired pneumonia, and 23 hospital-acquired pneumonia. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were respectively 19.8% and 43.8%. In multivariate analysis, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), unlike CURB-65 (confusion, urea >7 mmol/L, respiratory rate >= 30 breaths/min, blood pressure <90 mmHg systolic or <= 60 mmHg diastolic, age >= 65) score, was associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. UBMo index performed better than PSI and CURB-65 scores in predicting both in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. For in-hospital mortality, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.94), 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.80), and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.54-0.72), respectively, for the 3 scores. For 1-year mortality, the AUCs were 0.93 (95% CI = 0.89-0.98), 0.66 (95% CI = 0.59-0.74), and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50-0.66), respectively, for the 3 scores. The cut point for the UBMo index of 20,000 x 10(-9) ng.mmol/L had a sensitivity of 93.1% and 80.9% and a specificity of 76.3% and 95.8%, respectively, for in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. Conclusion: If confirmed by prospective studies, the UBMo index appears very efficient in identifying patients at high risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities after an AP. (C) 2016 AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine.
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Dates et versions

hal-01430775 , version 1 (10-01-2017)



Alain Putot, Jennifer Tetu, Sophie Perrin, Henri Bailly, Lionel Piroth, et al.. A New Prognosis Score to Predict Mortality After Acute Pneumonia in Very Elderly Patients. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 2016, 17 (12), pp.1123 - 1128. ⟨10.1016/j.jamda.2016.07.018⟩. ⟨hal-01430775⟩
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